Trend shift: Dubai real estate decisions are becoming more logic-based

A clear shift toward logic-driven real estate decision-making is emerging in Dubai as the market moves into a more mature phase in 2026, according to a new industry report. Buyers are expected to prioritise fundamentals over hype, focusing on long-term value, execution quality, and real-world usability rather than short-term momentum.

The report, released by fäm Properties, highlights a growing preference for luxury assets, Tier-1 developers, metro-connected communities, and commercial real estate, signalling a more disciplined approach among investors and end-users alike.

Fundamentals to Replace Momentum-Led Buying

Drawing on analytics from DXBInteract, which is powered by Dubai Land Department–verified data, the report indicates that future growth will increasingly favour developments offering:

• Strong project fundamentals
• Credible execution and delivery records
• Genuine connectivity and infrastructure access
• Clear lifestyle positioning
• True scarcity and long-term relevance

Projects built primarily on marketing momentum and hype are expected to face rising pressure as buyers become more selective and value-conscious.

Buyer Behaviour Continues to Evolve

While luxury real estate remains Dubai’s most resilient segment, buyer behaviour is clearly changing. Both investors and end-users are expected to adopt a more analytical and disciplined mindset, carefully assessing:

• Price-to-value alignment
• Payment plan sustainability
• Construction and design quality
• Location strength and connectivity
• Developer credibility and delivery history

Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, noted that 2025 was largely momentum-driven, but 2026 will represent a turning point, with buyers moving beyond brand-led decisions to focus on execution risk and long-term usability.

2025: A Record-Breaking but Momentum-Driven Year

The report identifies 2025 as a historic year for Dubai’s real estate market. Between January and November alone, 197,263 property transactions were recorded, with a combined value of AED 624.1 billion, surpassing previous annual records even before year-end.

However, much of this activity was fuelled by momentum-led demand, rather than deep fundamental analysis. Despite this, end-user demand strengthened, particularly among families opting for ownership over renting—adding stability to established residential communities.

Dubai also continued to attract robust international capital inflows from Europe, the UK, CIS countries, India, Africa, and North America, alongside sustained expansion in the commercial real estate sector.

Outlook for 2026: Selective and Logic-Driven Growth

Looking ahead, the report forecasts a shift toward selective, fundamentals-based purchasing. Tier-1 developers are expected to dominate off-plan demand due to proven delivery capabilities and established reputations.

Smaller and newer developers are likely to partner with established brokerages to offset limited track records and strengthen buyer confidence. Meanwhile, prime villas, branded residences, and waterfront developments are expected to retain strong pricing and liquidity due to limited supply.

Increased competition from international developers—particularly from the United States—is also expected to raise development standards across Dubai’s real estate landscape.

Infrastructure Emerges as a Key Value Driver

Infrastructure will play a defining role in shaping future demand. Communities connected to the upcoming Dubai Metro Blue Line are expected to benefit disproportionately, as connectivity, walkability, and integrated urban planning increasingly influence pricing, rental performance, and long-term investment returns.

What This Means for Investors and End-Users

As Dubai’s property market matures, logic, quality, and long-term fundamentals are set to guide decision-making in 2026. For investors and homeowners alike, success will depend less on timing market momentum and more on choosing well-located, well-built, and well-connected assets that can sustain value over time.